October 2018 Update and Release of V4.11

jason  ·  2018 Oct 26

Some Numbers First

I'd like to be transparent with you because I think it's important when managing someone elses money and include you in this journey. A couple months ago I started marketing CoinBakers when it was an MVP. This was definitely too early as I had to rewrite our entire trading server to improve reliability. I'm using open source code but this was not optimal for our use case. This rewrite has been running since about a month and it's performing extremely well. The main issues about not consistently trailing the price on limit orders, errors in balance reporting, dropped callbacks on filled orders, have all been eliminated.

Because of these issues I had to put a hold on marketing and onboarding new users.

Since last week I've been steaming ahead as the core became very reliable and ready for scaling. There are some small bugs that need to be fixed (like when not right?) but major systems like, price fetching, strategy execution, and order execution have proven to be super reliable lately.

We had our first few customers last week from people that are not my friends lol. Any entrepreneur knows this is a huge milestone. Thank you for joining this with me and I hope I will not disappoint you. Too bad we welcome you with some small losses atm haha.

At the moment we are managing around $14,061. The last few trades have been executed smoothly.

The first few signups have been from some reddit posts after I launched. Since I can only really launch once, I have to become creative now. Reddit, facebook, google all seem to block ANY ad related to crypto so this has been a challenge.

As a long time Quora reader, I started answering some questions about Bitcoin and I had quite some success with it this week. One post was even featured and sent to Quora daily digest to 2000+ people. Awesome. Then I received more views and received a notification just this morning that it will be sent to 120,000+ people 🔥. It seems they test on smaller batches before sending to more people. Pretty smart.

This is the post where I explain some reasons for prices to rise: https://www.quora.com/What-will-lead-to-a-rise-in-cryptocurrency-prices

Pretty stoked about the results and definitely will take these learnings into my other venture I started recently, a SaaS related to growing startups in their early stages (like CoinBakers).

It seems twitter does want my money so coming weeks I'll start advertising on both Twitter and Quora and continue to find other ways for organic spam, insightful posts.

Market Update

Nothing much happening in the market at the moment. We are seeing smaller consecutive losses quicker after each other, as our strategy keeps bouncing between the SMA indicators and the market tightening. This is usually a sign of an impending breakout.

An interesting fact is that the stock market crash which erased all 2018 gains, did not affect Bitcoin prices. My theory has always been that stock market crashes influence Bitcoin prices negatively. Based on the fact that in economic growth, people start to invest with loans. When the stocks crash, people need cash to pay off debts which results in a self fulfilling cycle. In previous crashes we saw that stock market prices did indeed negatively Bitcoin prices.

It's interesting to find out if it's because we are already bottoming out, that it does not have a correlation, or simply this crash is just not large enough that people start scrambling for their cash yet. More in a future blog post.

So, our backtests shows we are entering bull markets properly, we can make profit in bear markets and protect your balance. However sideways markets are challenging for our strategy. So I'm working on a specific strategy that's working in sideways markets. More so, it even is able to trade and make profits in our mid-bear market trends which we usually stay out off. But it needs more testing and refining atm. I haven't backtested in combination with our current strategy so I don't know the net performance increase just yet. The indicator I use for this is called Traders Dynamic Index, it's based on SMA of RSI. In a future ELI5 blog post I'll explain this in more detail.

I expect we'll be leaving the sideways market in a couple weeks so hopefully it's finished early enough.

Our latest versions until V4.11 incorporated some updates that would exit the market earlier, seeing smaller losses instead.

Market Order Support

We are now supporting market orders for high downwards price action within a set timeframe. If there's a panic sell because of some news a limit order is risky as we will chase the price all the way down without it being filled. With market orders we are able to fill immediate at ask price. This way we protect your funds better in crashes.

Dashboard Updates

In the dashboard you can now pause your trading server and resume if you feel you want to stay longer in a trade or need a break. Keep in mind this will also pause any protection you have when you decide to pause while holding BTC.

I've also finished updating the control center to monitor all the trading servers statuses as we are plugging in more people now. It gives me panic situation control, it watches uptime of all services (api, trade servers, fetching servers, strategy servers), monitors reddit keywords (like crash, dump, etc), warns me on upcoming Future expiry dates.

Anyways, I'll be travelling a couple days to Portugal next week so my availability will be limited. I hope in the next update I'll have some more to share about our new strategy for sideway markets. If that one works we have covered any scenario (downwards, upwards, market crash, and sideways markets) and will be stronger than ever 💯

Have a good weekend and to be continued.

Jason